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How to Find Your Indie Game's Break-Even Sales and Launch Price

Learn how to work out your indie game's break-even sales and compare launch prices with simple formulas and a worked example.

Why break-even comes before pricing

Many solo developers pick a launch price by copying a similar game or by choosing a number that feels fair. That can work, but it hides a more useful question: how many copies do you need to sell before the project pays for itself? Break-even sales give you a concrete target. You can then judge whether that target is realistic for your audience, your marketing time and your wishlist.

Break-even is not a forecast. It is a threshold. If it looks far above anything you could plausibly sell, you learn that early, while changing the price, scope or budget is still cheap.

Work out what you actually keep per copy

The list price is not the money you keep. Before you can compare prices, subtract the costs that scale with each sale. A simple way to model this is:

Net kept per copy = list price × (1 − platform revenue share) × (1 − refund rate) − other per-copy costs.

The refund rate is your own estimate of the share of sales that get refunded. Per-copy costs apply to every copy sold, such as payment handling or a per-unit fee. Fixed costs, such as art, music, tools, legal fees and contractor time, are paid once no matter how many copies sell. Keep those separate. Write down every cost you can name, then sort each one into per-copy or fixed.

Worked example: one price, one break-even

Imagine a small puzzle game with a list price of $19.99. The storefront takes 30% of revenue. You estimate 5% of sales will be refunded. Payment handling costs $0.50 per copy. Your fixed costs total $6,000.

Step by step: $19.99 × 0.70 = $13.99. Then $13.99 × 0.95 = $13.29. Subtract $0.50 and you keep about $12.79 per copy. Divide fixed costs by net per copy: $6,000 ÷ $12.79 ≈ 469. Round up, so you need about 470 copies to break even.

This number is only useful if you compare it with a realistic estimate of copies sold. Your wishlist count and past playtest feedback can help you make that estimate, but treat it as a guess and write down the assumptions behind it.

Compare several prices side by side

A lower price usually sells more copies, but keeps less per sale. A higher price does the opposite. The useful comparison is expected net revenue at each price, which is net kept per copy multiplied by your estimated copies at that price. Each price needs its own conversion guess, because buyers do not respond the same way at every price point.

Using the same game, suppose you test $14.99 instead. The net kept per copy is $14.99 × 0.70 × 0.95 − $0.50 ≈ $9.47. Break-even becomes $6,000 ÷ $9.47 ≈ 634 copies. Suppose you estimate 600 copies at $19.99 and 900 copies at $14.99. Expected net revenue would be about $7,674 at $19.99 ($12.79 × 600) and about $8,521 at $14.99 ($9.47 × 900). In this made-up scenario, the lower price brings in more total net revenue, but it also needs more copies to break even. Both numbers matter.

Keep a price only if its positive margin, expected net revenue and break-even target all look credible together. A price that wins on paper but needs copies you cannot reach is a risk, not a plan.

Common mistakes to avoid

The errors below are easy to make and easy to fix once you spot them. Check your numbers against this list before you commit to a price.

1. Using list price instead of net kept. Always apply the revenue share, refunds and per-copy costs first.
2. Forgetting that per-copy costs apply to every copy, including discounted and bundled sales.
3. Leaving out fixed costs such as marketing, trailers, localization, or software subscriptions.
4. Treating wishlist count as a sales count. Wishlists are interest, not purchases, and conversion is always a guess.
5. Ignoring sales events. If you plan a 20% discount for a week, your average net per copy falls, so raise your break-even estimate.
6. Forgetting taxes and currency differences. Check whether your list price includes tax and how regional pricing changes what you keep.
7. Changing several inputs at once. Adjust one assumption at a time so you can see which one drives the result.

Turn the numbers into a launch decision

Once you have a break-even target and a few candidate prices, write a short decision note. Include the price, net kept per copy, break-even copies, your estimated copies and the assumptions behind them. Revisit it when you learn something new, such as playtest retention, wishlist growth or a comparable game's public results, which you should treat as unverified unless the source is reliable.

The goal is not a perfect prediction. It is a clear picture of what must go right for the project to pay off, and a habit of checking that picture before money is spent. Re-run your numbers at least once before launch and again after the first few weeks of real sales.

Written with AI assistance.